Pupule ballot: The case for Waipahu at No. 7 (or No. 8)

The rankings are out.

I haven’t looked. I’m already mind-blown by the final girls volleyball Top 10 of the season. I’ll just offer my football ballot and if you readers disagree, fantastic. If not, please counter with your Top 10 because, as you know, all this has the sustenance of whipped cream. Sometimes, all the fun, too, if we can discuss and disagree.

OK, I’ll include the new Top 10 rankings in these summaries.

(* Also included is a post-proofed-by-my-editor note that ‘Iolani routed Waipahu, something I totally overlooked. See below.)

Pupule ballot
FB Top 10
10/29/18

1. Saint Louis Crusaders (9-0, 7-0 ILH Open)
Last week: def. Punahou 45-21
This week: bye
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 1
Top 10 wins: Waianae (back when the Seariders were in the early rankings), Narbonne (Calif.), Kahuku, Punahou, Kapolei, Campbell, Farrington, Kamehameha, Punahou (again).
Top 10 losses: none
The skinny: In the ILH final on Saturday, the Crusaders ran the ball on 42 of their 66 offensive snaps. Coming into the game, they had run 53 percent of the time, an astounding rate. But OC Ron Lee had his unit pound the ground even more this time. True, 18 of those 42 rushes were by QB Jayden de Laura, roughly half being scrambles out of the pocket. But the play-calling script is all about complementing a dominant defense rather than maximizing the potency of the four-wide attack. It’s more about efficiency. The sensei has been masterful.
X-factor: Punahou set a template that offers other defensive units with the possibility of rattling the first-year starter, de Laura. But he passed with flying colors, particularly as the Crusaders adapted to Punahou’s mix of exotic blitzes. Line up with three down linemen, Saint Louis will run. Line up with five or six pass rushers, de Laura will locate the mismatch.
Sumo status: Yokozuna.

2. Punahou Buffanblu (7-3, 5-2 ILH Open)
Last week: lost to Saint Louis 45-21
This week: season over
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 3
Top 10 wins: Kapolei, Farrington, Mililani, Campbell, Kamehameha, Waianae, Kamehameha
Top 10 losses: Kahuku, Saint Louis, Saint Louis
The skinny: No team has given Saint Louis a closer game, albeit that was back on Sept. 15. The next closest team on this ballot would be Mililani, which lost to Punahou 43-21.
X-factor: Suggestion for post-season tweaking to the OIA-ILH alliance pilot program — have the ILH #2 play OIA #3 for the final spot in the HHSAA Open bracket. You say, the OIA has it’s third-place game just before the state tourney and this would be impossible? No need for a third-place game in my format. Determine the OIA 3 by head-to-head result during regular season. Simple.
Why defy the team/league ratio representation by-laws of the HHSAA? Let’s be blunt.
1) The OIA third-place game is redundant. It’s still a good game to fans who love prep football, but it’s a rerun/repeat of what happened in the regular season, and if the team that won back then loses in this instance, a part of me feels like they should meet again in the rubber match. And there’s no time for that, of course… and it gives long shot Farrington a heck of a puncher’s chance to become a miracle qualifier. We all love an underdog who never quits.
2) Any ILH 2-versus-OIA 3 game for a state berth is a lot more appealing, would draw a bigger gate and would bring some balance back to the force. I can’t think of another state in our nation where the second-best team is shunned by the state tourney.
3) This could, in theory, lead the public-school leagues to mention the possibility of a public-school only state tourney (re: former OIA executive secretary Dwight Toyama). Or not. Let’s see if the conversation gets to that point. Kind of like mom or dad dropping verbal hints (clears throat) of disapproval about the unworthy date their offspring is about to spend an evening with.
Sumo status: Yokozuna.

3. Mililani Trojans (8-2, 5-0 OIA Open)
Last week: def. Farrington 47-7
This week: vs. Kahuku
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 2
Top 10 wins: Farrington, Kamehameha, Campbell, Waianae, Kahuku, Kapolei, Farrington
Top 10 losses: St. John Bosco (Calif.), Punahou
The skinny: To be fair, the Trojans met Punahou within one week after returning from California back in early September. Yes, I know it was their own choice to travel in midseason, jet lag and readjusting the sleep cycle and body clock wasn’t Punahou’s problem, yada yada. But a Mililani-Punahou rematch would’ve been amazing. Mililani playing another OIA team in the first round of the state tourney? Not as amazing.
X-factor: Mililani is a great team that is playing as close to its potential as any team I’ve seen all year. They play well in dry weather. Not so well in rain, but not so bad, too. It was soggy and muddy when the Trojans went to Kahuku and ended Big Red’s home-field win streak.
Sumo status: Yokozuna. Yes, a yokozuna can lose twice in 10 matches and still be quite respectable. Especially if one of those defeats came at the hands of nationally top-ranked Bosco.

4. Kahuku Red Raiders (7-3, 3-2 OIA Open)
Last week: def. Campbell 33-13
This week: vs. Mililani
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 4
Top 10 wins: Punahou, Waianae, Kamehameha, Farrington, Kapolei, Campbell
Top 10 losses: Saint Louis, Mililani, Campbell
The skinny: There are three teams on the Kahuku bucket list of revenge. One was Campbell, which beat Kahuku on Oct. 6 with a TD and PAT in the final :19. Kahuku went back to Campbell on Friday and got its revenge.
Another on the list: Mililani, which routed Kahuku 38-10 at the Red Raiders’ homecoming on Sept. 29. Big Red gets its chance at redemption in the OIA Open final on Friday night.
X-factor: While teams like Kaimuki and Castle relied on elephant offensive packages to survive and advance in the playoffs, both teams also lost in the finals as they got scouted out. Kahuku, which mastered the elephant in 2016, has not made it a sizable chunk of the offense. Instead, they’ve gashed defenses with the pistol offset-I and tailbacks Zealand Matagi and Toalei Lefau.
Sumo status: Ozeki.

5. Campbell Sabers (7-4, 4-1 OIA Open)
Last week: lost to Kahuku 27-7
This week: vs. Farrington
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 5
Top 10 wins: Farrington, Kamehameha, Kahuku, Kapolei, Waianae
Top 10 losses: Mililani, Punahou, Saint Louis, Kahuku
The skinny: A state berth is at stake when the Sabers meet Farrington on Friday. They defeated the Governors 34-7 when the teams met on Aug. 18.
X-factor: The biggest difference in Campbell between the game it won against Kahuku (Oct. 6) and the game it lost against Kahuku (last Friday) was the absence of QB Krenston Kaipo. He has more experience in the offense than another talented slinger, Kaniela Kalaola.
Sumo status: Ozeki.

6. Kamehameha Warriors (4-6, 3-4 ILH Open)
Last week: season over
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 8
Top 10 wins: Kapolei, Farrington, Waianae
Top 10 losses: Mililani, Campbell, Kahuku, Punahou, Saint Louis, Punahou
The skinny: Close losses to Mililani (31-24) and Campbell (26-22), on the road, say a lot about how competitive the Warriors were. Clearly, some voters are locked into recency bias and have demoted Kamehameha for not playing football since Oct. 19. It’ll be tough to find another program that has three Top 10 wins after this slot on the ballot.
X-factor: If we start to rank defensive units, where would Kamehameha fall? My gut says Top 5 defense.
Sumo status: Ozeki.

7. Waipahu Marauders (8-4, 5-2 OIA D-I)
Last week: def. Castle 32-3
This week: bye
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 10
Top 10 wins: Waianae, Leilehua, Castle
Top 10 losses: ‘Iolani, Damien, Leilehua, Moanalua
The skinny: Is there another team that has ridden a roller coaster like the Marauders? They had no won or lost two games in a row all season until Friday, when they posted their third win a row.
Has there ever been a team that lost to an opponent (Leilehua) by 30 points, then beat them by 23 in the playoffs? So many questions.
This ballot has the Black Flag three notches higher than the Top 10 panel does. Three wins over Top 10 teams are tough to match. Should the Marauders be higher than ‘Iolani, which beat two Top 10 teams, and Lahainaluna, which hasn’t beaten a ranked team (yet) this fall?
Would anyone from Waipahu like to field that question?
X-factor: OIA teams in the recent incarnation of D-I have had mixed results at the state tourney. Hilo won the crown last year with a physically dominant defense and a superbly athletic offensive line and RB (Kahale Huddleston). Waipahu has faced big, physical defenses: Waianae, Leilehua (twice), Kailua. That’s three wins in four games. Three of the four losses came against smaller, quicker opponents: ‘Iolani, Damien, Moanalua.
Sumo status: Komusubi.
POST-BALLOT EGAD: There is this pertinent fact that I completely overlooked on my ballot, which was cast on Monday — ‘Iolani walloped Waipahu 55-14. So this ballot is skewed. ‘Iolani should be at No. 7 on my ballot. Waipahu should be slotted No. 8. PERIOD. Head-to-head results almost always matter most in my criteria and I completely missed it on Monday. Boooo Pupule, boo…

8. ‘Iolani Raiders (8-2, 7-1 ILH D-I)
Last week: bye
This week: bye
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 7
Top 10 wins: Waipahu, Castle
Top 10 losses: Clackamas (Ore.), Leilehua
The skinny: There’s a lot to like about the Raiders’ defense, a unit that limited Oregon’s defending 6A state champion (Clackamas) to seven points. On paper, the Raiders have beaten only two Top 10 teams, but they did so decisively: 55-14 over Waipahu and 41-14 at Castle.
X-factor: Whether it’s ‘Iolani or Saint Louis, these are two run-and-shoot offenses that mine deeply for the ultimate hidden gem: running the ball effectively. The Raiders would be happy to hand the ball to RB Kaua Nishigaya 25 times for 150 yards or more.
Sumo status: Komusubi.

9. Lahainaluna Lunas (9-0, 8-0 MIL)
Last week: def. King Kekaulike 54-0
This week: bye
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 6
Top 10 wins: none
Top 10 losses: Kamehameha
The skinny: I’m a believer in Luna football and have been since near the turn of the century, way, way back (sort of). I actually visited the Lunas’ field and chatted with Coach Bobby Watson. I saw a 6-foot-1, 215-pound freshman standout named Kaniela Tuipulotu lining up at running back and tight end during practice. He was FAST and so was the entire team. It was like watching a special forces unit of 50 or so soldiers. That just doesn’t happen automatically. My one wish was for Lahainaluna to play more Top 10 teams before the MIL season, and sometimes that is almost impossible with travel costs being what they are. (Superferry, please come back soon.) Otherwise, I’d be happy to vote for the Lunas much higher.
Tuipulotu later transferred to Kahuku, lived in a house with 12 other people, all for the chance to get more exposure. The move worked. He played college football at Hawaii, transforming into a athletic defensive lineman.
X-factor: With more technology and social media, players get more exposure to college recruiters and fans. Yet, players transfer from one community to another, from a neighbor island (Nate Herbig of Kauai) to an Oahu powerhouse (and then Stanford), or an Oahu powerhouse (Haskell Garrett) to a national name-brand program (Bishop Gorman) to this day. And less of those exposure-oriented elements means it’s harder for opponents to scout the Lunas.
They have the top seed as the defending D-II state champions and will play the Roosevelt/Pac-Five winner on Nov. 17 at Cooley Stadium.
Sumo status: Komusubi.

10. Castle Knights (5-7, 4-3 OIA D-I)
Last week: lost to Waipahu 32-3
This week: season over
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked
Top 10 wins: Moanalua
Top 10 losses: Kapolei, Moanalua, Leilehua, Waipahu, ‘Iolani, Damien, Waipahu
The skinny: This is the first OIA team on my ballot that has closed shop for the year. There are many reasons why another team could easily be No. 10 and I wouldn’t argue too strongly against it. Some may consider this recency bias, based on Castle’s stunning 28-14 win at Moanalua on Oct. 20, giving Na Menehune their first loss of the season. But recency bias should not be confused with strength of finish. After all, a win over a Top 10 foe in August is always good at the time, but a win in the league playoffs carries immediate weight. It was an elimination game.
X-factor: The Knights evolved into a specialist offense (elephant) with a highly trained wildcat QB (Senituli Punivai) who excelled at reading his blocks, exploding in tight crevasses. Whether it was in the elephant (late season) or spread (early), Punivai became the latest tin a long history of athletic QBs who were able to change the destiny of their teams through the power of their legs.
Sumo status: Sekiwake.

A look at the teams that didn’t make this ballot.

Hilo Vikings (8-1, 7-0 BIIF)
Last week: def. Kealakehe
This week: bye
Star-Advertiser ranking: No. 10
Top 10 wins: none
Top 10 losses: Campbell
The skinny: Ranked or not, this is one heck of a rebound from the massive graduation of Viking standouts last June. This is also one of the youngest defensive units in the state tourney. The Viks are still rugged and physical enough to instill fear in some BIIF opponents. Enough to forfeit a game. Hashtag FearKeaukaha. Trademark it.
X-factor: Rumor around East Hawaii is that the Vikings will pair with ‘Iolani in the D-I state tourney, which would be a rematch of last year’s preseason battle at Eddie Hamada Field. Hilo won that afternoon, 63-35.
Sumo status: Sekiwake.

Moanalua Na Menehune (8-1, 7-0 OIA D-I)
Last week: season over
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked
Top 10 wins: Leilehua, Damien, Waipahu
Top 10 losses: Castle
The skinny: Anyone who wants to blurt that Moanalua was overrated, well, I’d counter that Na Menehune overachieved from the start. Without much physical size, Moanalua stuck to its blueprint and made Coach Savaii Eselu a happy man. He kept his defensive stoppers on that side of the ball, let his offensive dudes work things out through thick and thin, and was creative when the time was right. Moanalua stuck to its strengths and had an unbeaten OIA Division I season. Did anyone see that coming?
X-factor: Sure, I would’ve liked to have seen a playmaker like Trequan Henderson get plenty of offensive action, but Eselu stuck to his guns. He believes the cornerback has a shot to play college and pro ball someday, and full-time defense — and kick returning — was his job.
Sumo status: Sekiwake.

Leilehua Mules (8-3, 6-1 OIA D-I)
Last week: season over
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked
Top 10 wins: Castle, ‘Iolani, Waipahu, Damien
Top 10 losses: Farrington, Moanalua, Waipahu
The skinny: If any team has a sharp argument to be ranked, it could be the Mules. FOUR wins over ranked teams. That’s more than half the Top 10. They had the misfortune of bad timing, falling to a rejuvenated Waipahu squad in the first round of the playoffs. The early-season injury to RB James McGary played a role, but the team never wavered, winning four in a row after the loss to Farrington, then four more in a row after another stunning home loss (Moanalua). I don’t think of Leilehua’s season as disappointing. The resume speaks for itself. This is just the reality of life in OIA D-I. It is tough, tough, tough for teams, and bittersweet, bittersweet, bittersweet for fans.
It’s a bit of a twist that while many fans bemoan the fact that the ILH may be underrepresented at the state Open Division tourney, Leilehua beat ‘Iolani 31-20 and ‘Iolani’s lone D-I opponent in the ILH, Damien (23-17). And Leilehua has closed shop for the year while ‘Iolani is in the big dance.
X-factor: Jeremy Evans (42 receptions, 734 yards, 13 TDs) is one of the top WRs in the state, but we don’t get to see him in the state tourney.
Sumo status: Sekiwake.

Damien Monarchs (5-4, 5-3 ILH D-I)
Last week: season over
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked
Top 10 wins: Waipahu, Castle
Top 10 losses: Mt. Spokane (Wash.), ‘Iolani, Moanalua, Leilehua
The skinny: Overachieving doesn’t entirely define the 2018 Monarchs, but with what they lost to graduation, there is clearly a tradition and a residual effect of all that leadership. Just when the Monarchs seemed about to cave in to their youthful ways, they’d bounce back, winning on the road at Waipahu. On the road at Kailua. And with nothing left at stake, they still beat Castle on the other side of the Koolaus. I don’t know how reasonable it is that ‘Iolani and Damien have to fight over one state berth every year if this format remains untouched.
X-factor: Damien will lose WR Lindon Sevilleja to graduation, but RB/LB Logan Lauti and QB Jake Holtz (6-3, 215) will return for their senior seasons.
Sumo status: Maegashira.

* St. Francis Saints (1-8, 0-8 ILH D-II)
Last week: season over
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked
Top 10 wins: none
Top 10 losses: none*
The skinny: On paper, the Saints’ season crashed when an ineligible player was found on the roster. He played in five games, and the ILH deemed the entire regular season to be tainted by this error. That being said, with this backup LB, St. Francis was 9-0 heading into the playoffs. Should they have merited a spot in the Top 10? I wouldn’t have argued stringently against it for an unbeaten team with a number of dominating victories. They also struggled past another D-II powerhouse, Roosevelt (yes, powerhouse). They shut out Kaimuki in a defensive battle, 13-0.
X-factor: We may never get the full story. We know Duane Eldredge was released from his duties as a co-athletic director in July. That left the staff with one less full-time administrator to comb through the minutiae of tasks. Despite the abrupt ending, this was a memorable season on the field for the Saints. With a strong intermediate team, the program appears to be girded for the future. There are still future college players on this roster.
Question Z: Some folks have mentioned that the heartbreak here is the same that happened at Kahuku in 2010. The pain for these young men and their coaches, their families and supporters, is absolutely gut-wrenching. But there is a difference. In that ’10 season, Kahuku had a player (or more — it was never clarified by the OIA) who years earlier had been promoted to ninth grade despite struggling in eighth. After he began ninth grade, he was sent back to eighth grade by administrators. He never played football until senior year, and by then, he was a part-time player simply participating in a historic tradition. An anonymous caller began to drop information about the possibility of an ineligible player. When Kahuku self-reported about the possibility of an infraction, there was no full expectation that it would cost them the entire season. The team was 10-0 at that point. Entities within the OIA pushed hard to disqualify Kahuku, and that was that. Even a stint in court to appeal the disqualification was met by a judge’s declaration that there was no precedent within the OIA that would allow him to justify the appeal.
In the Saints’ case this season, the student-athlete who was ruled ineligible repeated ninth grade after transferring to St. Francis, and was out of eligibility at the end of his junior season. The issue slipped through the cracks. In ’10, the player at Kahuku was physically sent back to eighth grade long before completing freshman year, which is much more of a gray area.
In both cases, adults held the cards. The repercussions at Kahuku were extreme on and off the field. Hopefully, everyone at St. Francis from top to bottom remains together and moves on, never to make this error again.
Sumo status: Sekiwake.

Kapaa Warriors (6-2, 5-1 KIF)
Last week: def. Waimea 53-21
This week: bye
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked.
Top 10 wins: none
Top 10 losses: Lahainaluna
The skinny: The Warriors are back on top with a defense that permitted just 40 points in KIF play. I was admittedly ignorant about neighbor island football in the 1980s, hearing occasionally about dynasties like the Jim Barry Konawaena Wildcats. By the ‘90s, I got to see Curtis Lee’s Maui Sabers and the Tommy Rita/Jon Kobayashi Waimea Menehunes during their heydays. I learned fast how solid, how disciplined, how smart these programs were. It’s easy for Oahu-centric fans to look at a three-team football league and dismiss it, but think again. If an island with great youth football tradition, fundamentals and coaching feeds into only three high schools, quality of play is normally excellent. As opposed to scattering talent to nearly 30 different teams (Oahu).
X-factor: The Warriors have a break until they host the Kamehameha-Hawaii/Kaimuki winner on Nov. 17.
Sumo status: Maegashira.

Roosevelt Rough Riders (11-1, 6-1 OIA D-II)
Last week: def. Kaimuki 28-18
This week: bye
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked
Top 10 wins: St. Francis (forfeit)
Top 10 losses: none (Kaimuki has been unranked)
The skinny: Coach Kui Kahooilihala’s third season was the charm, and it isn’t quite over just yet. His vision for a program that once relied heavily on the run-and-shoot offense is less about explosive plays and more about sound fundamental team play on defense, and execution of their option attack. Two-plus years of demanding full commitment year round have produced an OIA title for the first time in more than a half-century.
X-factor: Pearl City and Kaimuki had their chances to scout and prepare for Roosevelt in the playoffs. Is there a Division II team in the islands that has the discipline on defense to stop the Rough Riders? The obvious answer is the other team in red, the one from West Maui that practices against a misdirection-based offense daily.
Sumo status: Maegashira.

Kaimuki Bulldogs (9-2, 7-0 OIA D-II)
Last week: lost to Roosevelt
This week: bye
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked
Top 10 wins: none
Top 10 losses: Sierra Vista (Calif.)
The skinny: An unbeaten mark against OIA competition was blemished by Roosevelt, but the new season begins soon for the Bulldogs. They got by with just 23 players in a semifinal win over Kaiser. The normal attrition that comes with the late season and playoffs is unavoidable. Standout two-way lineman Sama Paama got dinged up and played hurt in the loss to Roosevelt. He isn’t alone, for sure. The two-week rest before the state-tournament game at KS-Hawaii is vital.
X-factor: Kaimuki has excelled in the run-and-shoot, and in the powerful elephant ground-and-pound formation. KS-Hawaii will prepare for both, but does Kaimuki coach David Tautofi have another ace up his sleeve?
Sumo status: Maegashira.

Kapolei Hurricanes (3-7, 1-4 OIA D-II)
Last week: season over
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked
Top 10 wins: Castle, Downey (Calif.), Waianae
Top 10 losses: Kamehameha, Punahou, Farrington, Saint Louis, Mililani, Campbell, Kahuku
The skinny: With three wins over ranked (and Top 10-level mainland) teams, there’s a case to be made that the ‘Canes deserve a spot in the Top 10. The psychology of a voting panel, however, works against a team that lost its final five games. For some teams, the ILH-OIA alliance’s merged Open Division — for regular-season play only — is a blessing sent from heaven. For some other teams, though, I wonder if they’d be perfectly happy if the format reverted back to the old-school OIA West and OIA East. It was an era when powerful programs had their chance to play more reserves against smaller, less potent teams. Bus rides were shorter, strictly in district.
Ask the players, though, and they relish a chance to go at the best teams from the other league. Video footage against a radically tough slew of opponents every week, particularly those with college scholarships on the table, are unlike anything possible.
X-factor: Even with the struggle to collect wins, Kapolei was very competitive with a group of young, talented QBs, and nearly made the playoffs.
Sumo status: Maegashira.

Farrington Governors (2-9, 1-4 OIA Open)
Last week: lost to Mililani
This week: vs. Campbell
Star-Advertiser ranking: unranked
Top 10 wins: Leilehua, Kapolei
Top 10 losses: Mililani, Campbell, Punahou, Kamehameha, Waianae, Saint Louis, Kahuku, Mililani
The skinny: So there are a few fans, neutral ones, who ask whether Farrington and Waianae should move down to Division I soon. Perhaps Waipahu should move up to Open. Leilehua. Moanalua. Castle. I don’t think it happens for Farrington. The legacy and pride of the program won’t be forgotten so easily. The Govs competed in many of their losses, and the wins over Leilehua and Kapolei, with double-digit margins, present a case against moving down to D-I. Of course, an upset win over Campbell this Friday would remove all doubt.
X-factor: Farrington has scored 21 points in its last three games. The last time it played Campbell, the Sabers won at home 34-7. On a neutral, synthetic field (Aloha Stadium), maybe Govs coach Daniel Sanchez and his staff have some new wrinkles. They have a history of making big things happen on special teams in clutch moments. And there’s nothing quite like being the underdog, especially one with the arm strength of 6-2, 240-pound QB Chris Afe-Alaivanu.
Sumo status: Maegashira.